Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?

Placeholder image Government shutdown illustration

Government closures have become a recurring element of US politics – however this one feels particularly intractable due to political dynamics along with deep-seated animosity between both major parties.

Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 people are expected to be put on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.

Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time as both parties – as well as the President – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.

These are several key factors that make things feel different currently.

First, For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare

The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown early this year. This time he's digging in.

This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate they can take back some control from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.

Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.

Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.

Additionally, they're attempting to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.

2. For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency to date.

The President himself stated recently that the government closure provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".

The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".

The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.

The budget director has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Illinois' largest city.

Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties

While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties in an effort to get federal operations, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.

Conversely, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.

House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".

Simultaneously, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.

The affected legislator and other Democrats denounced this as discriminatory, which was denied by the Vice-President.

4. The US economy is fragile

Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough due to the shutdown.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors along with various forms of government activity tied to business cease functioning.

A shutdown also injects new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.

Economic forecasters project potential reduction of as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth weekly during the closure.

However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.

Conversely, experts indicate should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become extended in duration.

Judy Brewer
Judy Brewer

A tech enthusiast and digital strategist with over a decade of experience in emerging technologies and startup ecosystems.